Trump still shows some strength in the Midwest heading into 2020


The theme song of the week is Thank You for Being A Friend from the show The Golden Girls written by Andrew Gold and sung by Cynthia Fee.Poll of the week: A Des Moines Register poll puts President Donald Trump’s approval rating in Iowa at 46%, while his disapproval rating in the same poll is at 50%.

This mirrors a year-long Gallup poll in Iowa which has Trump’s approval rating at 45% and his disapproval rating at 51%.There’s little doubt that Trump would lose if the 2020 election were held today and it was was a referendum on his job as president. His approval rating has been well below his disapproval rating throughout his presidency.

A far more interesting question is how high does his approval rating actually have to climb in order for him to have a better than minimal chance of winning in 2020.

Polls like the ones from Iowa suggest that Trump may be able to win, even if his approval rating nationally is below his disapproval rating. That is, Trump may be able to do exactly what he did in 2016: win the Electoral College, despite losing the popular vote.

There were four states where Barack Obama performed better than he did nationally in 2012 that Hillary Clinton then lost in 2016: Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If Clinton had won Michigan, Pennsylvania and either Iowa or Wisconsin, she would have won the Electoral College.

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