Donald Trump’s 2020 secret sauce


President Donald Trump isn’t in a great place to win a second term in 2020.

His overall job approval rating has hovered in the low 40s — and even upper 30s — for the entirety of his first two years in office. Polling in critical swing states in the Midwest and Sun Belt suggests his electoral map is shrinking rather than expanding compared with 2016.

And yet and yet and yet, there’s this: 71% of people in a new CNN-SSRS national poll think the economy is either “somewhat good” (45%) or “very good (26%). That’s the highest rating for the economy in a CNN poll since February 2001. Which is a looooong time.

It’s not only that people believe the economy is strong, either. It’s that they give Trump credit for it. A majority (51%) in the CNN-SSRS poll approve of the job Trump is doing with the economy, while 42% disapprove. (It’s the only issue — out of the five asked about — where more people approve than disapprove of how Trump is doing; Trump’s overall approval rating in the poll is 42%.)

That economic message could well be Trump’s secret sauce come 2020. In strong economies — or economies perceived as strong — voters tend to reward the incumbent president, just as they punish the president when the economy is faltering. Trump could well run on this basic argument: You may not like me or my style of politics. But look at the results! Is now really the time to change presidents?

[Read More]